Rare Breed Meat Co. Stadium · Analysis updated 00:47 UTC
Braintree vs Horsham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Braintree and 1.37 for Horsham, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Horsham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.
Model pick
Horsham or Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.9%
Why the model likes this
Braintree home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Horsham away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Horsham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Braintree and 1.37 for Horsham, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Braintree
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chesham United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonbridge Angels · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldershot Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Felixstowe & Walton Utd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester United U21 · 4-0 (W)
Horsham
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salisbury · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torquay · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worthing · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutton Utd · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastbourne Town · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weston-super-Mare | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | AFC Totton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Truro City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Torquay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Maidstone Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Billericay Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dover | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Farnborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Braintree | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Horsham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Chelmsford City | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Dorking Wanderers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Slough Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 21 | Farnham Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Chesham United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.