· Referee A. Matkovic · Analysis updated 23:54 UTC
Celje vs Olimpija Ljubljana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Celje and 0.69 for Olimpija Ljubljana, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Celje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.
Model pick
Celje to Win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–011.3%
- 2–18.7%
Why the model likes this
Celje home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 26% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Celje and 0.69 for Olimpija Ljubljana, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Recent form
Celje
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nafta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
Olimpija Ljubljana
- 2026-08-15T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Celje | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Nafta | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bravo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Koper | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Radomlje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Mura | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Aluminij | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.