England · Non League Premier - Northern · Regular Season - 4114:00

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Saturday, 18 April 2026

The myenergi Stadium · Analysis updated 23:54 UTC

Cleethorpes Town vs Hednesford Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Cleethorpes Town and 1.18 for Hednesford Town, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Cleethorpes Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Cleethorpes Town or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Cleethorpes Town win44%
Draw26%
Hednesford Town win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams to score54%

Correct score

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Cleethorpes Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.48 goals for Cleethorpes Town and 1.18 for Hednesford Town, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

  • Model confidence

    Cleethorpes Town or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Cleethorpes Town

    Hednesford Town

    • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scarborough Athletic · 3-4 (L)
    • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merthyr Town · 0-2 (L)
    • 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston United · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Solihull Moors · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rylands · 1-1 (D)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Non League Premier - Northern table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Cleethorpes Town321077
    2Warrington Town321047
    3Bury321027
    4Gainsborough Trinity320146
    5Avro320136
    6Alfreton Town320136
    7Ashton United320136
    8Whitby Town320116
    9Ilkeston Town320106
    10Redcar Athletic312015
    11Guiseley AFC311114
    12AFC Emley311104
    13Hyde United3111-24
    14Rylands310213
    15Curzon Ashton3102-13
    16Lancaster City3102-33
    17Bamber Bridge3102-63
    18Leek Town3021-12
    19Stockton Town3012-21
    20Workington3012-31
    21Quorn3012-61
    22United of Manchester3012-61

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.