Corinthians vs Mirassol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.82 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Corinthians the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Corinthians to Win

49.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.37 – 0.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Corinthians win50%

Draw28%

Mirassol win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.4%
1–112.6%
0–011.2%
2–010.5%
0–19.2%

Why the model likes this

Mirassol away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corinthians to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Corinthians and 0.82 for Mirassol, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

Recent form

Corinthians

Mirassol

2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs LDU de Quito · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.