Selhurst Park · Referee F. Hallam · Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.70 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.
Model pick
Arsenal to Win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.0%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.2%
Why the model likes this
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 17% / 24% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.70 for Arsenal, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Crystal Palace
Arsenal
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.