Telsiai Central Stadium · Referee M. Lukjancukas · Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
Džiugas Telšiai vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Džiugas Telšiai and 1.51 for Kauno Žalgiris, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Kauno Žalgiris the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.
Model pick
Kauno Žalgiris to Win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–08.2%
Why the model likes this
Kauno Žalgiris away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kauno Žalgiris to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Džiugas Telšiai and 1.51 for Kauno Žalgiris, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Džiugas Telšiai
Kauno Žalgiris
- 2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hegelmann Litauen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KI Klaksvik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs KI Klaksvik · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 37 |
| 2 | Džiugas Telšiai | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 37 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Banga | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -17 | 23 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 24 | 4 | 10 | 10 | -15 | 22 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 23 | 2 | 7 | 14 | -28 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.