Fagiano Okayama vs Urawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.44 for Urawa, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives Fagiano Okayama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Fagiano Okayama to Win

57.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.32 – 1.44

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fagiano Okayama win57%

Draw20%

Urawa win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–19.0%
1–17.8%
3–17.0%
2–26.5%
2–06.3%

Why the model likes this

Urawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fagiano Okayama to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.44 for Urawa, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 69%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Fagiano Okayama

Urawa

2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-07T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-21T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-17T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 4-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	2	2	0	0	8	6
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2	2	0	0	6	6
3	Kashiwa Reysol	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Kashima	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Gamba Osaka	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Vissel Kobe	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Avispa Fukuoka	2	1	0	1	2	3
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	2	1	0	1	0	3
9	Fagiano Okayama	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	V-varen Nagasaki	2	1	0	1	0	3
11	Shimizu S-pulse	2	1	0	1	0	3
12	Cerezo Osaka	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Kawasaki Frontale	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Kyoto Sanga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Mito Hollyhock	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Tokyo Verdy	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	FC Tokyo	2	0	1	1	-4	1
18	Nagoya Grampus	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Urawa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	JEF United Chiba	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.