Fortuna Sittard Stadion · Referee M. van den Kerkhof · Analysis updated 19:39 UTC
Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.18 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Fortuna Sittard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.
Model pick
Fortuna Sittard to Win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–16.6%
Why the model likes this
Fortuna Sittard home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cambuur away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 1.67 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 4.10 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 4.40 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.15 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 5.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.55 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.62 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 3.85 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 5.5 | 7.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 5.5 | 1.09 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.50 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 2.40 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Fortuna Sittard
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Genk · 2-1 (W)
Cambuur
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Volos NFC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-01-29T15:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 2-1 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2022-08-20T16:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 1-4 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2022-02-26T20:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2021-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2018-12-19T18:45:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 2-1 Cambuur (KNVB Beker)
- 2018-03-23T19:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 3-2 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2017-11-17T19:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 0-1 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2017-02-10T19:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 1-1 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2016-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · Fortuna Sittard 3-0 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.