Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.50 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Fortuna Sittard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Fortuna Sittard to Win

49.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.02 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fortuna Sittard win50%

Draw22%

PEC Zwolle win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.1%
1–18.9%
2–26.8%
1–26.7%
3–16.1%

Why the model likes this

Fortuna Sittard home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Sittard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.50 for PEC Zwolle, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 67%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Fortuna Sittard

2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-3 (L)

PEC Zwolle

2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ajax · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Athens FC · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jazira · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.