Frosinone vs Carrarese Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.84 for Carrarese, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Frosinone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws roughly 30% of the time.

Model pick

Frosinone to Win

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.28 – 0.84

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Frosinone win70%

Draw18%

Carrarese win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

2–011.5%
1–010.1%
2–19.6%
3–08.7%
1–18.5%

Why the model likes this

Frosinone home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frosinone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 18% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Frosinone and 0.84 for Carrarese, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 51%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Frosinone

2026-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sambenedettese · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone U20 · 1-0 (W)

Carrarese

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Venezia	38	24	10	4	46	82
2	Frosinone	38	23	12	3	42	81
3	Monza	38	22	10	6	29	76
4	Palermo	38	20	12	6	28	72
5	Catanzaro	38	15	14	9	11	59
6	Modena	38	15	10	13	13	55
7	Juve Stabia	38	11	18	9	-1	51
8	Avellino	38	13	10	15	-12	49
9	Mantova	38	13	7	18	-12	46
10	Padova	38	12	10	16	-10	46
11	Cesena	38	12	10	16	-11	46
12	Carrarese	38	10	14	14	-5	44
13	Sampdoria	38	11	11	16	-13	44
14	Virtus Entella	38	10	12	16	-15	42
15	Empoli	38	9	14	15	-7	41
16	Sudtirol	38	8	17	13	-10	41
17	Bari	38	10	10	18	-22	40
18	Reggiana	38	9	10	19	-20	37
19	Spezia	38	8	11	19	-16	35
20	Pescara	38	7	14	17	-15	35

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.