England · Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 414:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 22 August 2026

· Analysis updated 23:45 UTC

Gloucester City vs Hanwell Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Gloucester City and 1.34 for Hanwell Town, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Hanwell Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

Hanwell Town or Draw

66.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.22 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Gloucester City win34%
Draw27%
Hanwell Town win40%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams to score52%

Correct score

  • 1–112.6%
  • 0–110.3%
  • 1–09.4%
  • 1–28.5%
  • 0–07.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Hanwell Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.22 goals for Gloucester City and 1.34 for Hanwell Town, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

  • Model confidence

    Hanwell Town or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Gloucester City

    Hanwell Town

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Non League Premier - Southern South table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Chertsey Town321047
      2Uxbridge321047
      3Bath City321027
      4Frome Town320156
      5Taunton Town320126
      6Hanworth Villa320126
      7Evesham United320116
      8Hanwell Town312015
      9Yate Town312015
      10Plymouth Parkway311164
      11Sholing311104
      12Chippenham Town3111-14
      13Bracknell Town3111-64
      14Basingstoke Town3102-13
      15Berkhamsted3102-23
      16Poole Town3102-23
      17Chichester City3102-33
      18Havant & Wville3102-33
      19Malvern Town3021-32
      20Gloucester City3012-21
      21Gosport Borough3012-21
      22Wimborne Town3012-31

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.