Hebburn Town vs Southport Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Hebburn Town and 1.02 for Southport, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Hebburn Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.

Model pick

Hebburn Town to Win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Hebburn Town win58%

Draw22%

Southport win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–010.1%
2–19.9%
2–09.7%
3–16.4%

Why the model likes this

Southport away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hebburn Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Hebburn Town and 1.02 for Southport, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Hebburn Town

Southport

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buxton · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hebburn Town · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wigan · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs United of Manchester · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chester	2	2	0	0	3	6
2	Worksop Town	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	Macclesfield	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	South Shields	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Oxford City	2	2	0	0	2	6
6	Hebburn Town	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Brackley Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Buxton	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Spennymoor Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Harborough Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
11	Merthyr Town	2	1	0	1	1	3
12	Spalding United	2	1	0	1	1	3
13	Darlington 1883	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Scarborough Athletic	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	Hereford	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	Morecambe	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Southport	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	King's Lynn Town	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	AFC Telford United	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Bedford Town	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Chorley	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Marine	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Hednesford Town	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Radcliffe	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.