Hull City vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Hull City and 1.18 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Hull City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Hull City or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Hull City win44%

Draw26%

Middlesbrough win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Hull City home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Middlesbrough away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Hull City

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 3-0 (W)

Middlesbrough

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 3-3 (D)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-23T14:30:00.000Z · Hull City 1-0 Middlesbrough (Championship)
2025-12-29T19:45:00.000Z · Hull City 1-0 Middlesbrough (Championship)
2025-12-05T20:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-4 Middlesbrough (Championship)
2025-01-01T17:30:00.000Z · Hull City 0-1 Middlesbrough (Championship)
2024-11-30T12:30:00.000Z · Hull City 1-3 Middlesbrough (Championship)
2024-04-10T18:45:00.000Z · Hull City 2-2 Middlesbrough (Championship)
2023-12-13T20:00:00.000Z · Hull City 2-1 Middlesbrough (Championship)
2023-04-19T19:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-3 Middlesbrough (Championship)
2022-11-01T19:45:00.000Z · Hull City 1-3 Middlesbrough (Championship)
2022-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-0 Middlesbrough (Championship)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.