Estadio Carlos Sacaan · Analysis updated 02:54 UTC
Ituzaingó vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ituzaingó and 1.49 for Deportivo Merlo, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Deportivo Merlo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Deportivo Merlo to Win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–08.2%
Why the model likes this
Ituzaingó home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Merlo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Merlo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 28% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Ituzaingó and 1.49 for Deportivo Merlo, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Ituzaingó
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentino de Merlo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Camioneros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Remedios · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Italiano · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Laferrere · 0-2 (L)
Deportivo Merlo
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Camioneros · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Italiano · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Burzaco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa San Carlos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Liniers · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B Metropolitana table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 56 |
| 2 | Talleres Remedios | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 56 |
| 3 | Deportivo Camioneros | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 55 |
| 4 | Villa Dalmine | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 55 |
| 5 | Arsenal Sarandi | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 17 | 53 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 52 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 8 | Deportivo Laferrere | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | Deportivo Armenio | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | -1 | 41 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 40 |
| 11 | Argentino de Merlo | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 12 | Deportivo Merlo | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -12 | 38 |
| 13 | San Martín Burzaco | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | -2 | 37 |
| 14 | Dock Sud | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 36 |
| 15 | Argentino Quilmes | 29 | 7 | 13 | 9 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Liniers | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | -8 | 32 |
| 17 | Brown DE Adrogue | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -12 | 31 |
| 18 | Villa San Carlos | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -7 | 29 |
| 19 | Flandria | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -13 | 29 |
| 20 | UAI Urquiza | 29 | 3 | 18 | 8 | -10 | 27 |
| 21 | Defensores Unidos | 29 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -11 | 26 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | -28 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.