Ituzaingó vs San Martín Burzaco Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Ituzaingó and 1.30 for San Martín Burzaco, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives San Martín Burzaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

San Martín Burzaco to Win

49.0% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

0.77 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Ituzaingó win22%

Draw29%

San Martín Burzaco win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–116.4%
1–112.6%
0–012.6%
0–210.6%
1–09.8%

Why the model likes this

Ituzaingó home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Martín Burzaco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 22% / 29% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Ituzaingó and 1.30 for San Martín Burzaco, a combined 2.07 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Recent form

Ituzaingó

2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentino de Merlo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Camioneros · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Remedios · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Italiano · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Laferrere · 0-2 (L)

San Martín Burzaco

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B Metropolitana table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	30	16	8	6	22	56
2	Talleres Remedios	30	16	8	6	18	56
3	Deportivo Camioneros	30	15	10	5	17	55
4	Villa Dalmine	30	15	10	5	17	55
5	Arsenal Sarandi	30	14	11	5	17	53
6	Sportivo Italiano	30	14	10	6	14	52
7	Real Pilar	30	12	9	9	2	45
8	Deportivo Laferrere	30	11	9	10	-3	42
9	Deportivo Armenio	29	11	8	10	-1	41
10	Comunicaciones	30	10	10	10	2	40
11	Argentino de Merlo	30	10	9	11	0	39
12	Deportivo Merlo	30	9	11	10	-12	38
13	San Martín Burzaco	30	8	13	9	-2	37
14	Dock Sud	30	8	12	10	1	36
15	Argentino Quilmes	29	7	13	9	-3	34
16	Liniers	29	7	11	11	-8	32
17	Brown DE Adrogue	30	7	10	13	-12	31
18	Villa San Carlos	29	6	11	12	-7	29
19	Flandria	30	7	8	15	-13	29
20	UAI Urquiza	29	3	18	8	-10	27
21	Defensores Unidos	29	5	11	13	-11	26
22	Ituzaingó	30	1	10	19	-28	13

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.