Latvia · 1. Liga · Regular Season - 1413:00

11

Saturday, 25 July 2026

· Analysis updated 00:47 UTC

JDFS Alberts vs Super Nova 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for JDFS Alberts and 1.48 for Super Nova 2, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives JDFS Alberts the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

JDFS Alberts to Win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.28 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

JDFS Alberts win56%
Draw20%
Super Nova 2 win25%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals52%
Both teams to score69%

Correct score

  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–17.9%
  • 3–16.8%
  • 2–26.6%
  • 2–06.1%

Why the model likes this

  • Super Nova 2 away threat

    Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates JDFS Alberts to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.28 goals for JDFS Alberts and 1.48 for Super Nova 2, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 69%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

JDFS Alberts

    Super Nova 2

    • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mārupe · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs JFK Ventspils · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga Mariners · 0-3 (L)
    • 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JDFS Alberts · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-07-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga FC II · 1-2 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.