Fukuda Denshi Arena · Referee Koei Koya, Japan · Analysis updated 03:54 UTC
JEF United Chiba vs Machida Zelvia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for JEF United Chiba and 1.74 for Machida Zelvia, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.
Model pick
Machida Zelvia to Win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–06.4%
Why the model likes this
Machida Zelvia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machida Zelvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 23% / 24% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for JEF United Chiba and 1.74 for Machida Zelvia, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
JEF United Chiba
Machida Zelvia
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs JEF United Chiba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Kashima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Vissel Kobe | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Avispa Fukuoka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | V-varen Nagasaki | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Kawasaki Frontale | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Mito Hollyhock | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Tokyo Verdy | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Tokyo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Nagoya Grampus | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 19 | Urawa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.