Turkey · Süper Lig · Regular Season - 3317:00

03

Saturday, 9 May 2026

Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium · Referee A. Karaoglan · Analysis updated 03:48 UTC

Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.04 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Konyaspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Konyaspor or Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.24 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Konyaspor win41%
Draw28%
Fenerbahçe win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals20%
Both teams to score46%

Correct score

  • 1–113.2%
  • 1–012.6%
  • 0–110.6%
  • 0–010.1%
  • 2–18.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Konyaspor home form

    3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Konyaspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.24 goals for Konyaspor and 1.04 for Fenerbahçe, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Konyaspor

  • 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rizespor · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-07-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Dhafra · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 0-3 (L)
  • 2026-07-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Zalaegerszegi TE · 1-3 (L)
  • 2026-07-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 2-1 (W)

Fenerbahçe

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Süper Lig table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Gençlerbirliği S.K.110013
    2Rizespor110013
    3Galatasaray101001
    4Çorum FK101001
    5Alanyaspor101001
    6Gaziantep FK101001
    7Kasımpaşa101001
    8Trabzonspor101001
    9Fenerbahçe1001-10
    10Konyaspor1001-10

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.