· Analysis updated 02:46 UTC
Leatherhead vs Welling United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Leatherhead and 1.61 for Welling United, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Leatherhead the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Leatherhead to Win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.1%
Why the model likes this
Welling United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leatherhead to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Leatherhead and 1.61 for Welling United, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 70%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Leatherhead
Welling United
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stanway Rovers · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitehawk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Folkestone Invicta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Isthmian table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carshalton Athletic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Dartford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Leatherhead | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Eastbourne Borough | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Dulwich Hamlet | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Enfield Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Welling United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Chatham Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | St Albans City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Burgess Hill Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Aveley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Lewes | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Ramsgate | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Brentwood Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Maldon & Tiptree | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Cray Wanderers | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Wingate & Finchley | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Cheshunt | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 19 | Whitehawk | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Whyteleafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 22 | Three Bridges | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.