Lens vs Nice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lens and 1.18 for Nice, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Lens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Lens or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lens win44%

Draw26%

Nice win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Lens home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Lens

2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Charleroi · 2-2 (D)

Nice

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-22T19:00:00.000Z · Lens 3-1 Nice (Coupe de France)
2026-05-02T19:05:00.000Z · Lens 1-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2025-12-14T16:15:00.000Z · Lens 2-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
2025-02-08T16:00:00.000Z · Lens 0-2 Nice (Ligue 1)
2024-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · Lens 0-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
2024-03-16T20:00:00.000Z · Lens 1-3 Nice (Ligue 1)
2023-12-20T20:00:00.000Z · Lens 0-2 Nice (Ligue 1)
2023-02-01T20:00:00.000Z · Lens 0-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2022-12-29T20:00:00.000Z · Lens 0-0 Nice (Ligue 1)
2022-04-10T15:05:00.000Z · Lens 3-0 Nice (Ligue 1)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.