Lille vs Auxerre Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Lille and 0.77 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Lille to Win

56.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.57 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lille win56%

Draw25%

Auxerre win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–015.1%
2–011.8%
1–111.7%
0–09.6%
2–19.2%

Why the model likes this

Lille home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 25% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Lille and 0.77 for Auxerre, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

Recent form

Lille

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 6-3 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 3-0 (W)

Auxerre

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sochaux · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St Maur Lusitanos · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.