Liverpool vs Como Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Liverpool and 2.25 for Como, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Como the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Como or Draw

64.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.00 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Liverpool win35%

Draw20%

Como win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

1–27.2%
2–27.2%
1–16.4%
2–16.4%
1–35.4%

Why the model likes this

Liverpool home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Como away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 35% / 20% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Liverpool and 2.25 for Como, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Liverpool

2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 1-1 (D)

Como

2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-24T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.