Liverpool vs Leeds Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.25 for Leeds, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.

Model pick

Liverpool to Win

54.8% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Liverpool win55%

Draw22%

Leeds win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–19.7%
1–07.8%
2–07.8%
3–16.5%

Why the model likes this

Liverpool home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Liverpool to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Liverpool and 1.25 for Leeds, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Liverpool

2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 1-1 (D)

Leeds

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League - Summer Series table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	1	1	0	2	3
2	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0
3	Wrexham	0	0	0	0	0
4	Sunderland	1	0	1	-2	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.