Northern-Ireland · Championship · Promotion Group - 3614:00
LoughgallDDW

20

Saturday, 11 April 2026

Lakeview Park · Analysis updated 23:49 UTC

Loughgall vs H&W Welders Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Loughgall and 1.29 for H&W Welders, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Loughgall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Loughgall or Draw

66.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.29

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Loughgall win40%
Draw26%
H&W Welders win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Both teams to score55%

Correct score

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 0–18.6%
  • 1–27.8%

Why the model likes this

  • Loughgall home form

    4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Loughgall to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.42 goals for Loughgall and 1.29 for H&W Welders, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Loughgall

  • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Institute · 0-0 (D)
  • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rathfriland · 3-1 (W)
  • 2026-07-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dollingstown · 3-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dungannon Swifts · 1-4 (L)

H&W Welders

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Championship table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Ards321047
    2Newington Youth321047
    3Glenavon FC320146
    4H&W Welders320136
    5Newry City AFC3201-16
    6Loughgall312025
    7Moyola Park311104
    8Queen's University311104
    9Institute311104
    10Annagh United3111-14
    11Dundela303003
    12Strabane Athletic3102-23
    13Ballinamallard United3102-23
    14Warrenpoint Town3102-33
    15Armagh City3012-31
    16Rathfriland3003-50

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.