Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lugano and 0.91 for Estrella Del Sur, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives Lugano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Lugano or Draw

71.9% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.19 – 0.91

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lugano win42%

Draw30%

Estrella Del Sur win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–014.5%
1–113.3%
0–012.2%
0–111.1%
2–08.7%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Lugano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Lugano and 0.91 for Estrella Del Sur, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Model confidence
Lugano or Draw is the headline pick at 72% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Lugano

Estrella Del Sur

Head-to-head

2026-05-23T18:30:00.000Z · Lugano 2-3 Estrella Del Sur (Primera C)

Primera C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sacachispas	23	12	5	6	13	41
2	Estrella Del Sur	24	10	8	6	5	38
3	Berazategui	23	9	9	5	8	36
4	Lugano	23	9	9	5	7	36
5	Puerto Nuevo	24	8	11	5	0	35
6	Centro Español	23	9	7	7	8	34
7	Mercedes	23	8	9	6	9	33
8	Victoriano Arenas	24	7	11	6	4	32
9	Juventud Unida	22	7	8	7	3	29
10	Leandro N. Alem	23	7	6	10	-14	27
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	23	6	7	10	-7	25
12	Argentino Rosario	23	3	12	8	-6	21
13	JJ Urquiza	23	3	12	8	-10	21
14	Deportivo Paraguayo	23	4	8	11	-17	20
1	Lujan	23	12	6	5	13	42
2	Canuelas	24	10	9	5	8	39
3	Yupanqui	24	8	9	7	5	33
4	Deportivo Español	23	7	12	4	4	33
5	General Lamadrid	24	8	9	7	-3	33
6	Sportivo Barracas	22	9	4	9	4	31
7	Leones de Rosario	22	7	10	5	0	31
8	Central Cordoba	23	7	8	8	1	29
9	Atletico Atlas	23	7	8	8	-2	29
10	Central Ballester	23	7	5	11	-4	26
11	El Porvenir	23	4	14	5	-4	26
12	Fénix	23	6	7	10	-6	25
13	Deportivo Muñiz	22	4	10	8	-5	22
14	Claypole	23	5	7	11	-14	22

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.