Lyon vs Monaco Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Lyon and 1.35 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Lyon to Win

50.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.91 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lyon win51%

Draw22%

Monaco win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–19.5%
1–07.3%
2–07.0%
1–26.7%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Lyon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for Lyon and 1.35 for Monaco, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Lyon to Win is the headline pick at 51% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Lyon

Monaco

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.