Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Machida Zelvia and 0.99 for Nagoya Grampus, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws roughly 27% of the time.

Model pick

Machida Zelvia to Win

73.5% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.70 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Machida Zelvia win74%

Draw15%

Nagoya Grampus win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–09.2%
2–19.0%
3–08.2%
3–18.1%
1–06.8%

Why the model likes this

Machida Zelvia home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machida Zelvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Machida Zelvia and 0.99 for Nagoya Grampus, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 58%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Machida Zelvia

2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs JEF United Chiba · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-18T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-06T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-2 (D)

Nagoya Grampus

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	2	2	0	0	8	6
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2	2	0	0	6	6
3	Kashiwa Reysol	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Kashima	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Gamba Osaka	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Vissel Kobe	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Avispa Fukuoka	2	1	0	1	2	3
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	2	1	0	1	0	3
9	Fagiano Okayama	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	V-varen Nagasaki	2	1	0	1	0	3
11	Shimizu S-pulse	2	1	0	1	0	3
12	Cerezo Osaka	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Kawasaki Frontale	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Kyoto Sanga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Mito Hollyhock	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Tokyo Verdy	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	FC Tokyo	2	0	1	1	-4	1
18	Nagoya Grampus	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Urawa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	JEF United Chiba	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.