New National Stadium · Referee F. Nakamura · Analysis updated 02:43 UTC
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.13 for Urawa, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Machida Zelvia to Win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–18.1%
Why the model likes this
Machida Zelvia home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Urawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machida Zelvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.13 for Urawa, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Machida Zelvia
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs JEF United Chiba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-2 (D)
Urawa
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-07T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-21T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-17T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 4-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 45 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 37 |
| 4 | Kawasaki Frontale | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 28 |
| 5 | Tokyo Verdy | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 28 |
| 6 | Urawa | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | -3 | 20 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 | Mito Hollyhock | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | -16 | 18 |
| 10 | JEF United Chiba | 18 | 3 | 0 | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Cerezo Osaka | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 31 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 30 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | Fagiano Okayama | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | -3 | 26 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-pulse | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | -2 | 24 |
| 8 | Kyoto Sanga | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 9 | V-varen Nagasaki | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -8 | 21 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -10 | 21 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.