· Analysis updated 00:46 UTC
Maritimo vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.12 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Maritimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.
Model pick
Maritimo to Win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.7%
Why the model likes this
Maritimo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritimo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Maritimo and 1.12 for Benfica, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Maritimo
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela Calheta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Machico · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Camacha · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 1-5 (L)
Benfica
- 2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-03-12T18:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-3 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-5 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-04-30T16:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-12-19T17:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-7 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-04-05T18:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-11-30T19:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 1-2 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-06-29T17:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 2-0 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-11-30T18:00:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-4 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-04-22T19:15:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-6 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2018-12-16T17:30:00.000Z · Maritimo 0-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.