Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Marseille and 1.24 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.

Model pick

Marseille to Win

54.8% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.99 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Marseille win55%

Draw22%

Toulouse win24%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–19.8%
2–19.7%
1–07.9%
2–07.9%
3–16.4%

Why the model likes this

Marseille home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toulouse away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marseille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for Marseille and 1.24 for Toulouse, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Marseille

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 3-1 (W)

Toulouse

2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodez · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nantes · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.