· Analysis updated 01:56 UTC
Melbourne City II vs Green Gully Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Melbourne City II and 0.79 for Green Gully, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Melbourne City II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws roughly 26% of the time.
Model pick
Melbourne City II to Win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 3–09.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.6%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melbourne City II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Melbourne City II and 0.79 for Green Gully, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 50%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Melbourne City II to Win is the headline pick at 74% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Melbourne City II
Green Gully
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Victoria NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 51 |
| 2 | Hume City | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 46 |
| 3 | Preston Lions | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 43 |
| 4 | Avondale | 24 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 41 |
| 5 | South Melbourne | 24 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 41 |
| 6 | Sunshine Georgies | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 35 |
| 7 | Heidelberg United | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Dandenong City | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 33 |
| 9 | Melbourne City II | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 30 |
| 10 | St. Albans Saints | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -14 | 28 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -12 | 27 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -26 | 21 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | -28 | 15 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -29 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.