Metz vs Lorient Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Metz and 1.96 for Lorient, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Lorient the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.

Model pick

Lorient to Win

55.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Metz win23%

Draw22%

Lorient win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–29.8%
0–18.5%
0–28.3%
1–36.4%

Why the model likes this

Lorient away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lorient to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 23% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Metz and 1.96 for Lorient, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Metz

Lorient

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs UNFP · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.