Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia · Referee Alexis Herrera, Venezuela · Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
Mirassol vs LDU de Quito Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.89 for LDU de Quito, a combined total of 1.99. That distribution gives Mirassol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.
Model pick
Mirassol or Draw
71.0% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 0–013.7%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.1%
- 2–08.3%
Why the model likes this
Mirassol home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mirassol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 31% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Mirassol and 0.89 for LDU de Quito, a combined 1.99 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Recent form
Mirassol
- 2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs LDU de Quito · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
LDU de Quito
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Universitario | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Fluminense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 1 | U. Catolica | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Barcelona SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 1 | Corinthians | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Platense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Penarol | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | Junior | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 1 | LDU de Quito | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Mirassol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Lanus | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Always Ready | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Rosario Central | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | UCV | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Libertad Asuncion | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.