· Analysis updated 05:15 UTC
Nacional vs Alverca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Nacional and 1.24 for Alverca, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Nacional the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.
Model pick
Nacional to Win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.5%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nacional to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Nacional and 1.24 for Alverca, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Nacional to Win is the headline pick at 52% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Nacional
Alverca
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.