Nantes vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Nantes and 1.82 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Marseille to Win

56.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Nantes win21%

Draw23%

Marseille win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–110.9%
0–110.8%
1–29.9%
0–29.8%
1–06.0%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Marseille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 21% / 23% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Nantes and 1.82 for Marseille, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
Marseille to Win is the headline pick at 56% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Nantes

Marseille

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.