Palmeiras vs Fluminense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.94 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Palmeiras to Win

57.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.77 – 0.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Palmeiras win57%

Draw23%

Fluminense win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.8%
1–111.1%
2–010.5%
2–19.8%
0–06.7%

Why the model likes this

Palmeiras home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Palmeiras and 0.94 for Fluminense, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Palmeiras

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 3-0 (W)

Fluminense

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.