Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.85 for Lorient, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws roughly 28% of the time.

Model pick

Paris Saint Germain to Win

72.5% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.45 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Paris Saint Germain win73%

Draw16%

Lorient win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

2–011.1%
2–19.4%
3–09.0%
1–09.0%
3–17.7%

Why the model likes this

Lorient away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.85 for Lorient, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 52%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Paris Saint Germain

Lorient

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs UNFP · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.