Penafiel vs FC Porto B Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Penafiel and 1.32 for FC Porto B, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Penafiel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Penafiel or Draw

64.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.32

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Penafiel win38%

Draw26%

FC Porto B win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–09.2%
0–18.9%
2–18.4%
1–28.1%

Why the model likes this

Penafiel home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Penafiel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Penafiel and 1.32 for FC Porto B, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Penafiel

2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-24T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-5 (L)

FC Porto B

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.