· Analysis updated 02:43 UTC
Provincial Osorno vs Concón National Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Provincial Osorno and 0.65 for Concón National, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Provincial Osorno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Provincial Osorno to Win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.2%
- 0–017.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–010.6%
Why the model likes this
Concón National away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Provincial Osorno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 32% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Provincial Osorno and 0.65 for Concón National, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 32%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Recent form
Provincial Osorno
Concón National
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Provincial Osorno · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Santiago City · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal Salamanca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Colina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real San Joaquín · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 22 |
| 3 | Colchagua | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 22 |
| 4 | Concón National | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Santiago City | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 20 |
| 6 | Linares Unido | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Trasandino | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | General Velásquez | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Colina | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.