PSV Eindhoven vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 3.58 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 4.72. That distribution gives Union St. Gilloise the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws roughly 19% of the time.

Model pick

Union St. Gilloise to Win

81.4% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.15 – 3.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

PSV Eindhoven win8%

Draw11%

Union St. Gilloise win81%

Double chance 1X

19%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

92%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–37.8%
1–46.9%
0–36.8%
1–26.5%
0–46.0%

Why the model likes this

Union St. Gilloise away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union St. Gilloise to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 8% / 11% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 3.58 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined 4.72 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 84% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

PSV Eindhoven

Union St. Gilloise

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodo/Glimt · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs KVC Westerlo · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 3-3 (D)
2026-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge KV · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.