Venezuela · Primera División · Apertura - Quadrangular - 522:00

21

Saturday, 23 May 2026

UCVLWL

Complejo Deportivo Socialista · Referee A. Arteaga · Analysis updated 02:42 UTC

Puerto Cabello vs UCV Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Puerto Cabello and 0.98 for UCV, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Puerto Cabello the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Puerto Cabello to Win

55.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.77 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Puerto Cabello win56%
Draw23%
UCV win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams to score52%

Correct score

  • 1–011.3%
  • 1–111.1%
  • 2–010.0%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 0–06.4%

Why the model likes this

  • Puerto Cabello home form

    10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Puerto Cabello to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.77 goals for Puerto Cabello and 0.98 for UCV, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Puerto Cabello

  • 2026-08-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Zuliano · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamora FC · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Caracas FC · 3-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-02T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitanos FC · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-06-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 1-2 (L)

UCV

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Primera División table

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.