Stadion im. Braci Czachorów · Referee Marcin Kochanek, Poland · Analysis updated 23:57 UTC
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 2.37 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Gornik Zabrze the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.
Model pick
Gornik Zabrze to Win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 2.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 1–37.4%
- 0–27.3%
- 0–16.1%
Why the model likes this
Gornik Zabrze away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gornik Zabrze to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 20% / 19% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Radomiak Radom and 2.37 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Radomiak Radom
Gornik Zabrze
- 2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Slask Wroclaw · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Wieczysta Kraków | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.