Campo de Futbol de Vallecas · Analysis updated 03:15 UTC
Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.21 for Getafe, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Rayo Vallecano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.
Model pick
Rayo Vallecano to Win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.4%
Why the model likes this
Getafe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rayo Vallecano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.21 for Getafe, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Rayo Vallecano
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-1 (L)
Getafe
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.