Spain · Segunda División · Regular Season - 615:00

15:00 UTC

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Anoeta · Analysis updated 01:52 UTC

Real Sociedad II vs Mallorca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Real Sociedad II and 1.02 for Mallorca, a combined total of 1.72. That distribution gives Mallorca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Mallorca or Draw

75.3% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.70 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Real Sociedad II win25%
Draw33%
Mallorca win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

67%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals51%
Over 2.5 goals25%
Over 3.5 goals10%
Both teams to score32%

Correct score

  • 0–118.3%
  • 0–018.0%
  • 1–112.8%
  • 1–012.6%
  • 0–29.3%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Mallorca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 25% / 33% / 42% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 0.70 goals for Real Sociedad II and 1.02 for Mallorca, a combined 1.72 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 25% and both teams to score at 32%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.

  • Model confidence

    Mallorca or Draw is the headline pick at 75% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Real Sociedad II

    Mallorca

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Segunda División table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1FC Andorra110043
      2Mallorca110023
      3Castellón110013
      4Cadiz101001
      5Celta de Vigo II101001
      6Granada CF101001
      7Oviedo101001
      8Sporting Gijon000000
      9Cordoba000000
      10Las Palmas000000
      11Tenerife000000
      12Albacete000000
      13Eibar000000
      14Burgos000000
      15Almeria000000
      16Girona000000
      17Leganes000000
      18Sabadell000000
      19Eldense000000
      20Real Sociedad II1001-10
      21Valladolid1001-20
      22AD Ceuta FC1001-40

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.