Real Sociedad vs Valencia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 1.32 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Real Sociedad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Real Sociedad to Win

49.3% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.32

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Real Sociedad win49%

Draw23%

Valencia win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.5%
1–07.9%
2–07.2%
1–26.8%

Why the model likes this

Real Sociedad home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Valencia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Sociedad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.32 for Valencia, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Real Sociedad

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 2-1 (W)

Valencia

2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	59	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	42	86
3	Villarreal	38	22	6	10	26	72
4	Atletico Madrid	38	21	6	11	18	69
5	Real Betis	38	15	15	8	11	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	14	12	12	5	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	-6	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	12	14	12	-3	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	-9	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	11	13	14	-2	46
11	Espanyol	38	12	10	16	-12	46
12	Athletic Club	38	13	6	19	-15	45
13	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	-14	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	-12	43
15	Elche	38	10	13	15	-8	43
16	Levante	38	11	9	18	-14	42
17	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	-6	42
18	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	-10	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	-16	41
20	Oviedo	38	6	11	21	-34	29

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.