Red Bull Arena · Analysis updated 23:00 UTC
Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.00 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.
Model pick
Red Bull Salzburg or Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.5%
- 0–112.4%
- 0–012.4%
- 2–17.3%
Why the model likes this
Red Bull Salzburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rapid Vienna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 30% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.00 for Rapid Vienna, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
Red Bull Salzburg
- 2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pafos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oberwart · 7-1 (W)
Rapid Vienna
- 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Santa Coloma · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Rapid Vienna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Austria Lustenau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | SCR Altach | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Ried | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | TSV Hartberg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.