Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea · Analysis updated 02:54 UTC
Santiago City vs Provincial Ovalle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Santiago City and 1.15 for Provincial Ovalle, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Santiago City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws roughly 35% of the time.
Model pick
Santiago City to Win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–07.0%
Why the model likes this
Santiago City home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santiago City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Santiago City and 1.15 for Provincial Ovalle, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Santiago City
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Colchagua · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Concón National · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-06-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Provincial Ovalle · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Trasandino · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-06-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Colina · 1-0 (W)
Provincial Ovalle
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 22 |
| 3 | Colchagua | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 22 |
| 4 | Concón National | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Santiago City | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 20 |
| 6 | Linares Unido | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Trasandino | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | General Velásquez | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Colina | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.