Europa-Park-Stadion · Referee Sascha Stegemann, Germany · Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.18 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives SC Freiburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
SC Freiburg or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
SC Freiburg home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Freiburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for SC Freiburg and 1.18 for RB Leipzig, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
SC Freiburg
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 4-1 (W)
RB Leipzig
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 1. FC Köln | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | SV Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.