Studenternas IP · Referee A. Ladeback · Analysis updated 03:30 UTC
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Sirius and 1.25 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Sirius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws roughly 33% of the time.
Model pick
Sirius to Win
66.8% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–16.8%
- 3–06.2%
Why the model likes this
Mjallby AIF away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sirius to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Sirius and 1.25 for Mjallby AIF, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Sirius
Mjallby AIF
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sirius · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs IF Elfsborg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 42 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | IF Elfsborg | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 27 |
| 4 | Djurgardens IF | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 26 |
| 5 | BK Hacken | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 25 |
| 6 | AIK Stockholm | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 | Vasteras SK FK | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 25 |
| 8 | Gais | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| 9 | Malmo FF | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 23 |
| 10 | Mjallby AIF | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | IFK Goteborg | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -13 | 19 |
| 12 | Kalmar FF | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -3 | 18 |
| 13 | IF Brommapojkarna | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -13 | 13 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -17 | 13 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | -22 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.