· Analysis updated 01:50 UTC
Sozopol vs Zagorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sozopol and 1.36 for Zagorets, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Sozopol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Sozopol or Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.8%
Why the model likes this
Sozopol home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sozopol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Sozopol and 1.36 for Zagorets, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Sozopol
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Plovdiv · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-05-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rakovski 2011 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sekirovo Rakovski · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sayana Haskovo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 0-0 (D)
Zagorets
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodopa Smolyan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sayana Haskovo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Atletik Kuklen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Botev Plovdiv II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Spartak Plovdiv | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Levski Krumovgrad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Maritsa Milevo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Rozova dolina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Yambol 1915 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Zagorets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Sozopol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Dimitrovgrad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Levski Karlovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Gigant Saedinenie | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Neftochimic Burgas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.